PREDICTING THE FUTURE & MAKING MONEY

Client Question:
I think something is going on.
Prices will drop, someone will buy
and the bubbles will start all over again.
Opportunity?

Am I on the right direction here?
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Grandpa on Predicting the Future….

The problem is we can see the future but we cant usually get the timing right.

Yes.Sure!

There will be business cycles, prosperity, booms & busts.

Empires rise & fall. All paper currency will eventually become worthless.

Gold dropped in value around 90% in Europe after the new world discoveries by the Spanish. Pearls, once worth much more than diamonds became nearly worthless, dropping in value even more after “cultured pearls” were invented. This was in recent times (Living memory!)

Artists paintings rise and fall in relative value.
Consider Bernard Buffet’s work.
Celebrities, pop singers come & go.

One-time collectibles like stamps fall out of fashion.

How much do you think the 1st Superman comic book that just sold for $3 Million will be worth in 100 years — when Superman is long forgotten?

Funny thing I asked same thing 40 yrs ago when I had one of those few surviving mint condition Superman comic books.

I sold it for a few thousand $. A good profit from the 10c it cost. There were no Superman movies planned then in 1970 & I could not guess that some fool might pay so much more in 2014

Just recently I sold for a couple thousand a 1st edition rare Virginia Wolfe self published book. Cost a dollar.

I won’t live another 40 years to see if that too gets a crazy price.

Gurus who predict things are NEVER right all the time.

Still you can use logic. Some things are obvious & inevitable :

Like atomic reactors, & probably Uranium as fuel, will probably be fashionable again soon. China will move up in the chain just like Japan did — from very cheap stuff to more high tech. And they will produce very good stuff –not just cheap imitations.

One answer to getting rich or staying rich is – common sense & diversification. Better yet :

Find a product or service that is needed. Then, produce or source it, market it & sell it. That is better  4 U  than any passive investment. At least your luxury lifestyle is provided for in the immediate future.

Of course, predicting the future either with optimism or as a gloomer and doomer itself can be a profitable line of work. But only if your predictions and opinions are properly marketed.

Sometimes, gurus who are 95% wrong year after year have a big following that lasts their lifetimes. Why?  Because there are people who will pay for what they want to hear–even if it doesn’t square with the facts.

Religion is the prime example:

YOU WILL GO TO HEAVEN IF YOU PRAY, REPENT & GIVE US YOUR MONEY! THAT HAS BEEN A GOOD SELLER SINCE THE CONCEPT WAS INVENTED.

The Science fiction writer [-forgot his name–] said as much and then went on to « invent » and market Scientology.

Post your comments, thoughts, related personal experiences, corrections or questions below.